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Fantasy Anime League: Wideface Edition (Week 4) (Fall 2015) October 27, 2015

Posted by navycherub in Anime, Fantasy Anime League.
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New to this? Here’s the intro.
Last week: Week 3

Four weeks in brings us our first really dense week in terms of sheer stats. Every show counts for three separate point increases or decreases – the usual watching points, the bi-weekly discussion points, and a special “gift” for everyone in the form of negative points for drops. Drops can look pretty dang silly depending on how successful the show is otherwise. Sequels obviously won’t have many drops as a general rule, which makes up a little bit for their typical drop in viewers from one season to the next. Everything else is pretty susceptible to high drop numbers, but the really successful, high-tier shows are usually not fazed too much by the small sacrifice every week. Shows on the precipice of popularity can really take a beating, though, as we will see from this week’s results.

Screenshot_226

Overall ranks Week 4:

  1. 20 (+2) lostpikachu – 693313
  2. 41 (+5) NavyCherub – 682888
  3. 50 (-18) Sestrel – 679293
  4. 90 (-14) aeg2138 – 655154
  5. 98 (+3) NeoRevan – 649177
  6. 135 (+21) Guycot – 621822
  7. 145 (+7) Hamdog92 – 613491
  8. 335 (-2) Aikijou – 447773

Individual ranks:

Team: lostpikachu
New points: 191944
All points: 693313
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Comet Lucifer
- Watching: 27262
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Watching: 31681
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Watching: 36401
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Watching: 31830
=> 163360

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Comet Lucifer (308): 7700 
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
Haikyuu!! Second Season (233): 5825 
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry (557): 13925 
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (390): 9750 
=> 46200

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Comet Lucifer
- Dropped (1666): -6664
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Dropped (65): -260
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Dropped (960): -3840
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Dropped (594): -2376
=> -17616

lostpikachu says:

Well Owari beat Lucifer this week as I had predicted it might, thanks to Lucifer’s drops by the Lucifer Haterade Squad. Luckily it was only by 300 points which is pocket change. I wouldn’t have swapped it in anyways because I still have plans for Lucifer, and believe it can pull me ahead in the coming weeks. I’m going to escape 20th place! Bet on it!

And getting right to the point, dancing vegetable anime Comet Lucifer manages to be the most perfect poster child for shows that are simply not quite popular enough to make up for their losses. The assessment that Comet Lucifer still has some life in it compared to Owarimonogatari for the near future is probably right, as at least next week favorites alone won’t be able to push Owarimonogatari over that edge. However, the long run is still not looking too good for Comet Lucifer, as its watching numbers stagnate and the negative impact of all the other factors it isn’t succeeding with only grows. We’ll continue to watch and see if lostpikachu’s inspiring confidence plays out like he hopes it will.

Screenshot_232

Team: NavyCherub
New points: 192239
All points: 682888
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Watching: 31681
Owarimonogatari
- Watching: 22713
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Watching: 36401
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Watching: 31830
=> 158811

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
Haikyuu!! Second Season (233): 5825 
Owarimonogatari (260): 6500 
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry (557): 13925 
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (390): 9750 
=> 45000

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Dropped (65): -260
Owarimonogatari
- Dropped (155): -620
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Dropped (960): -3840
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Dropped (594): -2376
=> -11572

My own place is positive looking but similarly shaky in terms of future gains. I passed Sestrel, which was essentially expected because of my growth, and my weekly growth compared to lostpikachu’s has been almost the same, minus one show’s worth of points in the first week. In fact, I made more points than lostpikachu overall this week – only by a couple hundred, but the point is that our development has been incredibly similar so far this season. I would be much more confident, though, if cigarette-munching anime The Perfect Insider had a more solid lead in watching numbers compared to puzzle anime Owarimonogatari. As it stands, they are way too similar for me to feel comfortable switching; The Perfect Insider made a little more than Owarimonogatari this week, and it is set to do a tiny bit better again next week, but the investment in actually doing the swap and being stuck with that change for at least three weeks is a little scary because the gap is so small. I’ll definitely be watching the numbers closely as the week goes by.

ss+(2015-10-25+at+04.08.41)

Team: Sestrel
New points: 183671
All points: 679293
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Watching: 31681
Owarimonogatari
- Watching: 22713
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Watching: 36401
Subete ga F ni Naru: The Perfect Insider
- Watching: 24603
=> 151584

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
Haikyuu!! Second Season (233): 5825 
Owarimonogatari (260): 6500 
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry (557): 13925 
Subete ga F ni Naru: The Perfect Insider (329): 8225 
=> 43475

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Dropped (65): -260
Owarimonogatari
- Dropped (155): -620
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Dropped (960): -3840
Subete ga F ni Naru: The Perfect Insider
- Dropped (548): -2192
=> -11388

Sestrel’s shows are largely safe in terms of drops, and discussion is obviously also good. The main thing keeping her from gaining back her early lead is that, instead of choosing between the three shows vying for the worst-of-the-best spot that I discussed above, she has two of them and nothing better on her bench, and neither of them are the current best choice, Comet Lucifer. Seeing how Comet Lucifer‘s long-term status is up in the air right now, that may end up being a good thing overall, but for now it isn’t doing her any favors. Like me, her best hope is for The Perfect Insider to keep up its upward momentum from here on out.

Screenshot_230

Team: aeg2138
New points: 176146
All points: 655154
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
Heavy Object
- Watching: 21258
Owarimonogatari
- Watching: 22713
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Watching: 36401
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Watching: 31830
=> 148388

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
Heavy Object (251): 6275 
Owarimonogatari (260): 6500 
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry (557): 13925 
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (390): 9750 
=> 45450

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
Heavy Object
- Dropped (1595): -6380
Owarimonogatari
- Dropped (155): -620
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Dropped (960): -3840
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Dropped (594): -2376
=> -17692

On the other hand, aeg2138 might find his savior in Comet Lucifer. With his next swap now available, and Heavy Object continuing to drop like something that is difficult to carry, Comet Lucifer would theoretically have him making more points per week than Sestrel, at least for a while. Their gap is kind of wide right now, but it is early enough that a smart change or two could give him the push to the top three. It depends on if he thinks it is worth being stuck with Comet Lucifer, though – next drop week is week 8.

Screenshot_233

Team: NeoRevan
New points: 182905
All points: 649177
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
K: Return of Kings
- Watching: 25328
Owarimonogatari
- Watching: 22713
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Watching: 36401
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Watching: 31830
=> 152458

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
K: Return of Kings (156): 3900 
Owarimonogatari (260): 6500 
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry (557): 13925 
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (390): 9750 
=> 43075

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
K: Return of Kings
- Dropped (329): -1316
Owarimonogatari
- Dropped (155): -620
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Dropped (960): -3840
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Dropped (594): -2376
=> -12628

NeoRevan says:

Well, can’t say I wasn’t surprised. Things are going just as calculated, no real changes. I did have fun baiting the Comet Lucifer Haters. Go Pikachu! Take first place! Haha, I’m just happy that unless something radically changes, I should be in the top 5. Maybe even top 3 if Loli lances keeps dragging Sestrel down.

Continuing a trend this season, NeoRevan is finding himself making more points weekly than aeg2138, as well as a very close growth trend to Sestrel. Also a common theme, he has the option to swap in Comet Lucifer for a currently weaker show in Owarimonogatari. While the bump in projected score per week wouldn’t be nearly as dramatic as aeg2138’s difference between Comet Lucifer and Heavy Object, NeoRevan’s only other real choice is to simply do nothing for now and hope he naturally rises above those ahead of him. A harder choice overall than aeg2138’s, but in lieu of putting something in his food, NeoRevan has to weigh his options.

Screenshot_229

Team: Guycot
New points: 182654
All points: 621822
Swaps:
out: Shinmai Maou no Testament Burst
in: Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
Owarimonogatari
- Watching: 22713
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Watching: 36401
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Watching: 31830
Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai
- Watching: 22691
=> 149821

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
Owarimonogatari (260): 6500 
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry (557): 13925 
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (390): 9750 
Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai (310): 7750 
=> 46925

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
Owarimonogatari
- Dropped (155): -620
Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry
- Dropped (960): -3840
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Dropped (594): -2376
Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai
- Dropped (695): -2780
=> -14092

Speaking of swaps, Guycot made a good one this week – sudden tournament anime Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai probably should have been tapped in a while ago, but better late than never as they say. It’s certainly not doing great, as I too am lamenting with it probably permanently on my bench, but more people seem to care about it than ecchi contract anime Shinmai Maou no Testament Burst. Also, with that swap, he is making a comparable weekly gain to NeoRevan right above him. What is really keeping this team down is a lack of K: Return of Kings or Haikyuu!! anywhere on it – not taking either limited show was a gamble, and it doesn’t seem to be paying off anytime soon.

Screenshot_231

Team: Hamdog92
New points: 173119
All points: 613491
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Comet Lucifer
- Watching: 27262
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Watching: 36186
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Watching: 31681
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Watching: 31830
Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai
- Watching: 22691
=> 149650

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Comet Lucifer (308): 7700 
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk (360): 9000 
Haikyuu!! Second Season (233): 5825 
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (390): 9750 
Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai (310): 7750 
=> 40025

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Comet Lucifer
- Dropped (1666): -6664
Gakusen Toshi Asterisk
- Dropped (1119): -4476
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Dropped (65): -260
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru
- Dropped (594): -2376
Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai
- Dropped (695): -2780
=> -16556

This team should theoretically not be doing this badly. Every choice here except for Taimadou Gakuen 35 Shiken Shoutai is a good one. The issue really seems to be that this season is so centralized on two shows – Gakusen Toshi Asterisk and Rakudai Kishi no Cavalry  – and having one just isn’t enough to be able to really compete. The difference between those two shows and essentially every other one is just so incredibly large that the deficit doesn’t have any reasonable countermeasures. On the other hand, it is pretty amazing that two shows that are so ridiculously similar can be at the top of the pile at the exact same time. I guess the people know what they want and how to find it.

Screenshot_196

Team: Aikijou
New points: 112806
All points: 447773
Week 4 watching points:
-----------------------
Concrete Revolutio: Choujin Gensou
- Watching: 16074
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Watching: 31681
Subete ga F ni Naru: The Perfect Insider
- Watching: 24603
Young Black Jack
- Watching: 16891
Yuru Yuri San☆Hai!
- Watching: 11159
=> 100408

Week 4 discussion post points:
------------------------------
Concrete Revolutio: Choujin Gensou (204): 5100 
Haikyuu!! Second Season (233): 5825 
Subete ga F ni Naru: The Perfect Insider (329): 8225 
Young Black Jack (123): 3075 
Yuru Yuri San☆Hai! (117): 2925 
=> 25150

Week 4 additional points:
-------------------------
Concrete Revolutio: Choujin Gensou
- Dropped (1623): -6492
Haikyuu!! Second Season
- Dropped (65): -260
Subete ga F ni Naru: The Perfect Insider
- Dropped (548): -2192
Young Black Jack
- Dropped (875): -3500
Yuru Yuri San☆Hai!
- Dropped (77): -308
=> -12752

Screenshot_210


That just about wraps it up for week 4. It is actually a really exciting season, at least in my opinion – places are changing a lot, swaps are happening frequently, and potential upsets are lying in wait everywhere. Sure, that means we all have to do a little more math than I think most of us signed up for, but it’s all part of the fun, right? Speaking of fun, here is next week’s special rule:

  • +25 points for each user who has favorited the anime upon week 5.
  • +2000 points for each English-speaking region that simulcasts the anime in English in each of the following regions: USA, Canada, UK/Ireland, and Australia/New Zealand. The regions must be confirmed on MAL News’ official Fall 2015 Simulcast List thread. The number of companies that simulcast an anime is irrelevant; only which region(s) it gets simulcast in matter. Simulcast points are counted in week 5.

I’ve always found the concept of having a show on your favorites before it is even over to be a little strange, but there are all sorts out there I suppose. It’s also interesting to note that a recent redesign has changed the favorites system so that you can have up to ten favorite anime instead of five. I wonder if that will increase the overall favorites much! We’ll be back to see how that ends up next week, if I’m feeling up to it, loser.

Screenshot_234

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Comments»

1. Fantasy Anime League: Wideface Edition (Week 5) (Fall 2015) | (X '______') - Wideface - November 1, 2015

[…] New to this? Here’s the intro. Last week: Week 4 […]


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